Sunday, August 28, 2005

Primary

The Blade's Tom Troy does an excellent piece this morning profiling the 16 candidates for the 12 At-Large Toledo City Council seats up for grabs on September 13th. For more information on Vasquez, Shanahan, Copeland, McConnell Hancock, and yours truly, visit LucasCountyDemocrats.org

And there is the Blade Poll and story by Jim Tankersley. Mayor Ford is in a tough but winnable race. He hasn't touted his accomplishments, which are significant and real, as well as he should have - but he's got the resources to do that and win. Besides, I remember well the 64% Finkbeiner carried in the 1997 primary only to come within a couple thousand votes from defeat, barely earning 50% in the '97 general. And don't forget, Ford was down serious double digits for most of the '01 race as well, even into October.

More analysis later, gotta go to a service. Expect your analysis when I return...and if you have an opinion, be a mensch and use your name.

44 Comments:

Anonymous Jessica Rosenberg said...

I'm starting to get the idea that Jack Ford is damaged goods.

Anybody else out there get that impression?

8:43 AM  
Blogger billy said...

Its interesting if you have been around long enough to watch how the local rag puts editorial comments on the front page.

With the public execution of Ray Kest, and never once giving the man a chance to tell his own side of things, to now it's Carty holding a "Breathtaking" lead over Ford.

I guess instead of the debate, Carty was vacationing in Pittsburg sucking up (again) to the owner of the (locally owned) P.O.S. paper.

This is truly ugly. Like Ive said before - Carty does NOT deserve to be our next mayor...
But he will be.

8:55 AM  
Anonymous Sepp said...

Winnable?

Mr. Finkbeiner, the city's former mayor, has ridden a popularity resurgence to snag the support of 48.5 percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13 primary election, according to a Zogby International poll commissioned by The Blade and WTVG-TV, Channel 13.Mayor Ford follows with 16.5 percent. -Toledo blade 28 August 05

Accomplishments? What are the voters saying?
"Poll respondent Janet Roberson, 67, said Mr. Ford has been "pretty poor" as mayor. "It hasn't been until the last couple of months that he's done very much," she said"
"Mr. Ford, she added, is "so low-key, he almost isn't there."
-The blade 28 aug 05

What I'm seeing is, people don't actually think Carty is the answer to Toledo's problems, he's the answer to the Jack Ford problem.

9:25 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jack Ford was an excellent state legislator. Jack and the City Council had no money to do anything, (but they have millions to a 40 acre parking lot for cars to be towed until Claimed. Goverment does not belong in any business in which the private sector is able to a better job. Oerhaps this would be another slush fund for the Mayor. It ppears all you have done in the past six months is praise Jack Ford. Lets elect Jack Wilson DOG CATCHER also.)

11:12 AM  
Anonymous Jessica Rosenberg said...

If Ford can't win, then perhaps voters should consider another alternative.

Finkbeiner would be a disaster, IMHO.

11:13 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I disagree with your analysis that Ford is a "tough but winnable race." Zogby was right when he said that Ford is "in huge trouble." Don't forget -- Zogby is one of the best in the country at this stuff and usually is within only a few points one way or the other in picking races much larger than this one.

Those are some of the worst poll numbers I have ever heard of for a local incumbent official. Ford is polling a whole lot WORSE than Kest was four years ago -- not a good sign. And we all know how that worked out for Kest four years ago.

I'm beginning to think that Ford might not even get through the primary. He's going to be subject to the same phenomen that Taft is going through. Once an incumbent is percieved to be very unpopular, people who otherwise would not have an opinion suddenly form a very negative one. Similar to saying "Well, if no one likes him, then I shouldn't like him either." Ford's numbers might drop even another 3 to 4 points as a reult of some of the press following how few people like him and, if those go to Ludeman or Wilkowski, Ford is done. For the next two weeks, Ford's competition is those two.

The bigger story right now is watch for either Ludeman or Wilkowski to squeak through. Ford can't concern himself with Carty right now. Ford must survive the primary and then live to fight Carty another day. His only hope is that he has enough money to buy a great ground game on primary election day. My prediction is that he will, but it'll be close.

Carty at 48.5% -- he's on the path to getting over 65% in the general if he runs against Ford. Regardless of how you characterize it, that's a landslide.

Let's look at the worse case scenario for Carty. First, the margin of error is 4.5%. That takes him down to 44%. Even then he is strong. Ludeman's 11% is going to go at least 9% for Carty, who Republicans like a lot more than Ford. Wilkowski's 9% splits evenly between Carty and Ford. Wilkowski is sounding a very pro-business platform similar to Carty. Both of them sound like Republicans right now. The remaining 15% will split (although more will probably go with Carty.) Using those conservative assumptions, add that up and Carty is at 65% in a head to head with Ford. Anything over 55% is very tough to overcome. To overcome 65% would require one of the greatest politcal upsets in local politics in modern memory.

It won't happen and here's why. Ford has negatives of 54%, that's incredibly high for a local official. To exacerbate his problem, people really did not like Ford the first time around againt Kest. People voted for him because he was not Kest, who was a horrible candidate by all acounts. Carty is a much, much better candidatte than Kest. When your negatives get up around 40% you've got some problems. 54% and you have some huge problems.

Those numbers might move, but not by much. People are discounting all that Ford is trying to do in the last 3 months as a despetate attempt to try to save his job. As a result, even IF some of this stuff gets done, the Arena, Southwyck, Westgate, etc., people are going to have a jaded view of Ford. Why wasn't it done earlier?

Also, I don't think that Ford has ever run against such a tough opponent. It will be interesting to see how he handles it. From what I can see, he is starting to show some signs of stress. He needs some cool heads around him to keep him from panicking and making a mistake. Even a small one would be fatal right now. He needs to be almost perfect for the next two months.

Going negative on Carty won't be that effective. Everybody knows and remembers the "Bad" Carty. They know he has some problems, but they don't care. Trying to reinforce them with a huge negative t.v. campaign ($200k plus) might move the numbers a bit, but it still won't make people like Ford. Watch for some incredibly negative and nasty things to be said about Carty in the next two months. And you thought the "Swift Boat" ads were bad.

Carty's fundraising is going to launch into the stratosphere and he'll be able to respond to any attack with his own flurry of t.v. and direct mail. He'll be able to blunt it. Ford's money is going to dry up.

The race will still be close in the end, because people will pounce on the frontrunner. Still, Carty will probably, in the worst case, end up somewhere in the high 50's. Still a big win.

The ONLY hope to beat Carty is Wilkowski. He still has little name recognition and the ability to build some positive numbers. It will be very expensive to do that though. Ludeman would have a similar opportunity, but he is going to be saddled with the complaint: "You say you are better, but what have you done in the last eight years?" Wilkowski isn't saddled with that and, as a result, is the only one who has any shot.

I'm going to be a mensch and stay anynomous. I will tell you that I am a poltical science professor at a large state univeristy in NW Ohio and a Wood County resident. I am not helping any of the candidates on thier campaign, nor do I have a favorite. I'm watching this an interested and neutral observer. My academic reflex causes to have to comment.

Frank, thank you for the site and the ability to share my thoughts with you. I'm curious what you think.

12:39 PM  
Blogger Lisa Renee said...

I wasn't impressed with the article on the at large council seats at all.

I'll give you one example:

Karen Shanahan, who has worked for Democrats back to Hubert Humphrey, said she was impressed by the beauty of downtown in a recent excursion on the Sandpiper boat, but wants to see more shopping.


"I think it's now time for the City of Toledo to put in a new parking garage," she said.


While I'm sure Karen does feel more shopping downtown would be an asset she has stated much more important visions for the city than that one.

Some of the candidates fared slightly better as far as what the Blade chose to use from the interviews, however overall? If you don't know much about the candidates? This piece was not going to help you at all.

12:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Carty came down from 67% to 52% from the primary to the general in 1997 because he had a very bad and inexperienced campaign manager who lacked any real political skills. He has lot better campaign staff now.

I hope that Carty's 1997 campaign manager is not advising Ford now.

12:49 PM  
Blogger Frank said...

Yeah, what the hell was I thinking leaving work with President Clinton back in DC for Finkbeiner. Really, I just love Toledo.

I'm sure the campaign manger in 97 was responsible for Carty's tirades against citizens, staff and elected officials - not to mention the little girl with the pet chicken.

Never worked with a crazier candidate than he.

2:02 PM  
Anonymous Mudonna said...

Stop Finkbeiner.

Vote Wilkowski.

2:42 PM  
Anonymous Alan Aquino said...

Here are my rankings:

1. Wilkowski
2. Ford
3. Ludeman
4. Finkbeiner
5. Ostrowski
6. Covey (tie)
6. Grozdowski (tie)

5:06 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Stop Carty. Vote Wilkowski!!

6:47 PM  
Anonymous Kevin Crane said...

Stop Carty nowski.

Vote for Wilkowski.

7:01 PM  
Blogger liberal_dem said...

I attended the mayoral forum at Beaner's this afternoon and noted the absence of Carty, although his men were there.

How embarrassing for them to stand there without there candidate.

Ludeman said that he and his wife 'celebrated' their 30th wedding anniversary last week by attending a mayors' forum.

Where's Cartty?

...oh yes, on vacation 3 weeks before the primary. Great timing.

7:20 PM  
Blogger historymike said...

Historymike covered the Beaner's mayoral candidate forum today here .

Too lengthy to post here, so click above if you are interested.

Shameless self-promotion, I know, but it is relevant to this thread.

Met Frank for the first time today at the event. Much taller than I thought, and he works the crowd well.

He figured out in about 1.5 seconds who I was, so I have to give him an "A" in the category of "quick-on-his-feet."

7:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Carty,if he worked so hard for the city, why would I often run into him at the Churchills Supermarket on S. Byrne Rd. at 6:30pm ?

7:35 PM  
Blogger billy said...

Liberal-dem - you say "Where's Carty?
...oh yes, on vacation 3 weeks before the primary. Great timing."

The same Blade article that said there would be 5 mayoral debates also said that Carty would be missing two of them. This is not news - we knew about this.

Carty will not make a good mayor for toledo. But he will be Toledo's next mayor.

8:00 PM  
Anonymous Steve Fought said...

Too early to call. Too many things can happen between now and November.

Ask George W. Bush (or his father, for that matter).

8:07 PM  
Blogger ToledoJoe said...

Ford needs to get out of the race. He is going to lose big time and his team is going to take some big hits. Carty is going to win unless Wilk can step it up in the last two weeks. Ford is done.

10:19 PM  
Blogger Frank said...

Finally getting home after another great day on the trail. Attended several church services this morning, house parties in Old Orchard and on Glann, near Dorr & Richards, a campaign planning session, the Beaners mayoral forum, visited both sets of my son's great-grandparents, ending tonight at Music Under the Stars at the Zoo where the Mayor, my son Lucas and I delivered a proclamation to the leader of a Toledo ballet troupe - in front of a standing room only crowd, the Mayor joked about coming out in a ballet get-up himself. The amphitheatre roared.

After spending 13 hours with the Mayor, off and on, today, I can relay that he exudes confidence and a strong desire to be successful this November.

He'll fight fairly to make the general, and I would urge him to just plain fight for the future of our city and my son's generation by defeating Carty in November.

10:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Frank (and others),

This is Keith Wilkowski. I hope you don't object to me posting on your blog. Of course, it is yours and I respect that and won't post if you don't want me to.

I saw the comment/analysis by the NW Ohio Poli Sci prof. (I don't know who it is). How he sees it is pretty much what we've been saying all along regarding the general election match-up.

If folks want to help, or if they want to know more about the ideas I've been promoting, they can go to our website at www.wilkowskiformayor.com.

I think I am now the only mayoral candidate to participate in such a thread, a distinction I'll claim with pride. I do want to be a mayor for the 21st century, and blogging is part of that, for sure. I cannot promise to continue to respond to posts given my schedule, but I wanted to drop a line this evening.

It was good to see you today at Beaner's and at the Zoo. You are to be congratulated on maintaining this blog, and for running a very energetic campaign.

Keith Wilkowski

11:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kudos to Keith Wilkowski for joining the online fray. Hadn't heard much from his camp just yet, but am looking hard at them now. This Carty thing is terrifying me. Jack Ford CANNOT beat Carty Finkbeaner.

I have been with Jack till now, but I must now follow Mudonna to the light.


If you love Toledo (Frank) STOPPING CARTY MUST BE JOB 1 (can't forget my old UAW/FORD mantra).

Stop the Carty party
Vote for Wilkowski!

8:50 AM  
Anonymous Jerry Adams said...

Yikes!

It appears that all that water you are carrying for the do noting Mayor is costing your own political future, Frank! If Zogby is to be believed, the likes of Betty (graft and corruption) Shultz and Bob (Crass and disruption) McCloskey (Carty backers both) are whipping your buttocks in the pre-primary poll.

There is always a job in the Administration for you. Oh, oops. You have been bashing the soon to be Mayor too much to get his attention now.

8:59 AM  
Anonymous Sepp said...

Like I said before..

Carty isn't the answer to Toledo's problems, he's the answer to the Jack Ford problem.

9:19 AM  
Anonymous Angelina Ortega said...

Not exactly, Sepp.

Keith Wilkowski is the answer to the Jack Ford problem.

9:27 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have been a Jack supporter until now. After reading in our local daily that he has the same approval rating as Taft, it finally sunk in that Ford has no shot. I'm switching over to Wilkowski, who I really think has Toledo's best interests at heart and is the only one who stands any chance against Carty.

9:36 AM  
Blogger Frank said...

Thanks Jerry for the analysis.

9:37 AM  
Blogger liberal_dem said...

To all of the negative folks on Jack Ford: do you really know what you are talking about or is it all just perception?

Have you analyzed his record and his accomplishments as mayor? Do you, for instance, know that he inherited a $17,000,000 debt laid on him by Carty? Nice way to start his four years, eh?

Before you decide to abandon Ford, you ought to at least do some research into what his 4-years has meant to Toledo.

10:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Liberal_dem. I have done the research and my conclusion is that Ford HAS to go. Sorry, but his time has passed.

11:07 AM  
Blogger HansT said...

Jack Ford has accomplished more with less, than any other mayor in the past twenty years. He has balanced the budget, without laying off police and fire. He has established care-net, which services over 6000 people, mostly women. He runs the city with less money than four years ago. If he were a CEO he would be in line for a huge bonus. Not to mention that Carty left him with $17 million in debt and bad development deals. Oh yea, and Mayor Ford has not come out saying he wants to move all the deaf people out to the airport, or threw a coffee mug at employees, or punched anyone, or shoved anyone, or used vulger language towards women at government center. Jack Ford has led the city with integrity and competence. Mark my words after Jack Ford's EIGHT years he will be known as a great mayor and a have a legacy that every mayor after will strive to acheive.

11:07 AM  
Blogger liberal_dem said...

to anonymous--

could you share the research which leads you to the conclusion that Ford should not be re-elected?

11:38 AM  
Anonymous Al Wexler said...

Only if he legalizes marijuana, Hanst!

This is delusional.

Example: Southwyck. Maybe some guy is going to think about reviatlizing it -- after three other guys supposedly promised to do the same?

Example: Free mowers for kids. I missed that entrepreneurial upswell this summer. Probably should have looked around at area garage sales.

Example: Marina District. Yes a giant retailer on the banks of the most important natural resource our City will ever have in one place. And it took 4 years for that no brainer? Why didn't I think of that?

Example: Costco. "Not on my watch." "No, er, maybe." "Westgate will thrive with Costco." Now this is forming public opinion...in real time.

Example: Elegant City. Every road in town torn up in the last three months of his ONLY term because he didn't want to do them sooner for fear the voter might forget his hard work.

Example: TOLEDO WORKS. Pulease! Give me a vote on how you use my tax dollars, Jack. I resent your blatant use of my money to advance your well-being.

Now, I grant you he hasn't shoved anyone or used vulgar language at them. That is a plus. But he has leave his slumber to do something like that.

That's it! I have it. A new career as a spokesman for Tylenol PM.

11:45 AM  
Blogger HansT said...

Carty's meetings with the owners of Southwyck= ZERO

Mayor Ford's= Half a dozen

A young man who started a lawnmowing buisness, with help from Mayor Ford mows my lawn every other week

Mayor Ford was busy balancing the budget and cleaning up Carty's mess for the first two years of his administration. Things are in motion in the Marina Disrtict, more than i can say for Carty. What did he do to advance the Marina District?

11:59 AM  
Anonymous Al Wexler said...

Oh I see. I am blogging with the Mayor's scheduler.

You really ought to mow the lawn weekly to keep things elegant, no?

12:02 PM  
Blogger HansT said...

Not his scheduler just an informed citizen.

2:14 PM  
Anonymous Al Wexler said...

Is this Jay Black?

2:18 PM  
Anonymous Tontogany Phil said...

Who the hell is Jay Black?

7:46 PM  
Anonymous Mindy Rudolph said...

I hope Wilkowski goes on the attack in this next debate.

Make Ford and Finkbeiner defend their lack of achievement for the past 12 years.

Does anybody in this g****** city think the last 12 years have been good?

Huh?

7:55 PM  
Blogger Dan said...

Well, the article in The Blade was nice in that we can compare the half million candidates running for 6 seats. Still, its local govt so its cool to have so many choices that you might actually have a chance to talk to and find out more about.

Sounds like a lot of disappointment in these posts. Why not take a look at some of the new faces if we really want change in local govt? Frank, being the exception of course...

In another post Dave somebody mentioned a smaller council with more district seats and less At Large... I wonder why he does not run for a district council seat then? I also wonder if he is afraid to say he is a Republican, or is it that he just forgot to put it on his signs and literature? Another sneaky Republican enters the stage... lets flip him a coin or two for his campaign.. he can borrow the rest from Noe or Shultz... my disabled unemployed neighbor used to have a few coins around...not anymore...

12:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Easy with those "javelins of wit", Dan, you'll poke someone's eye out.

6:33 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jack Ford is Done Period.

10:46 AM  
Anonymous Tontogany Phil said...

The only reason Jack Ford got in as mayor of Toledo is because his father was president.

7:45 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dan Eble said:
"Another sneaky Republican enters the stage... "


What a nice generalization and labeling of all Republicans. Keep on talking Dems....you only perpetuate the stereotype of Democrats being mean, nasty, ill-mannered, hate-speakers, and divisive. After all, it's been 5 years of nothing but one attack after another. By now its become second nature for you to berate Republicans. It's really getting tiresome.

I can think of quite a few Dems in the bunch that need cleaning. Just because you've got a couple losers like Noe and Taft to enjoy, doesn't make an entire party "sneaky".

signed, J.H.

12:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

president of what?

8:09 PM  

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