Monday, August 29, 2005

Council Primary

I didn't know The Blade was polling on At-Large Council candidates in their survey, though I'm glad they did. NOTE: The respondents were read all 16 names in rotation and asked for their top pick, according to The Blade political writer Jim Tankersley.

1. Betty Shultz..........(R)..........14.5%
2. Bob McCloskey.....(D)..........11
3. Phil Copeland.......(D)..........10.3
4. George Sarantou...(R)..........8.6
5. Frank Szollosi.......(D)..........5.6
6. Mitch Balonek....(Green)......5.4
7. Mark Sobczak......(D)...........3.8
8. Dave Schulz...........(R)..........3.7
9. Karyn McConnell Hancock...3.6
10. Bob Vasquez.......(D)..........3.5
11. Terry Shankland..(D)..........2.7
12. Karen Shanahan...(D).........2.3
13. Ernie Berry.........(I)...........2.1
14. Tom Meineke......(D)..........1.6
15. Jason Schreiner...(D)..........1.1
16. Bob Tilton...........(I)............0.8

My initial reaction is that, of course, name identification plays the major role in these results. And that we should take these numbers with a grain of salt as primary turnout will be higher in the central city than a survey can suggest.

Shultz & McCloskey have been on the ballot and in the news these past 15 years - they know their way around municipal government, and have helped a lot of folks with city issues over the years. Its interesting that Betty's Noe problem and Bob's court case hasn't apparently hurt them in this survey.

Copeland benefits from good name ID as well, with his late uncle Bill's success as a Lucas County Commissioner in '93, '96 and '00, not to mention his time as Recorder and long city council career before that. Phil has been active in Toledo for over 30 years - he truly is a great guy, and he has an amazing number of supporters.

Betty, George and Dave all benefit from being the only Republicans in the primary field. Sarantou, again, has great name ID, having been elected to council in 2001 and getting a boost from his position as Chair of the Finance Committee. George is smart.

My standing? All along, if anyone asked, I said I'd be happy to finish in the top six. I've been on council now 2 and a half years. In 2003 there were four on the ballot, I finished second. I've tried to make contributions on the budget task force, forcefully working against both the Escobar-led garbage tax increase and the police, fire and municipal employee layoffs. Sure, the city's grass should be cut, but why layoff police & fire and keep millions in the budget for seasonal employees? I've only recently become chairman of a council committee that sees alot of legislation, the Economic Development Committee. Since then I've worked on the Jeep expansion, Marina/Arena projects, Southwyck, Westgate, and a few small business items. Earlier this year I met with the displaced businesses at Northtowne, and with the Ford Administration's help, some of the entrepreneurs moved into the Erie St. Market. I saw to it that city policy protects prevailing wage, and am working with colleagues now to defend local contractors and tradespeople from out-of-town outfits that don't pay local taxes. I remain proud of our work to protect public health and a safe workplace with the clean air ordinance. I'm grateful to those who are directly helping my campaign, and to those citizens who support me.

Mitch Balonek could be the next Mike Ferner. A Green, he has campaigned energetically and has some mainstream, displaced Democratic support. An ally of his, Dave Ball, is seeking the Council District seat to be vacated by Wade Kapszukiewicz next week. Balonek is one to watch.

Sobczak and Schulz, first time candidates, are both campaigning actively, and either could come on strong yet.

My friend and colleague Karyn McConnell Hancock's standing is stronger than it appears. She ran first in 2003, has a solid base, and I predict will overcome her recent spate of bad publicity. She has alot of friends, a great family, and knows how to win.

Our two councilmatic running mates, Bob Vasquez and Karen Shanahan also have shots with the right combination of support and message. They are working in traditional Democratic precincts that, again, will turnout in larger percentages than a random survey can reflect. Their strength on September 13 will surprise you.

38 Comments:

Anonymous Paulette said...

Interesting point Frank ... "Sarantou, again, has great name ID, having been elected to council in 2001 and getting a boost from his position as Chair of the Finance Committee."

Thanks, Jack and Louie Lou-ah for that chairmanship!

Another reason to Bail on Jack; Aupport Keith Wilkowski!

9:48 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good news for you Frank. I have no doubt that you'll get another four years. McConnell-Hancock is in some deep, deep trouble. She should have been at the top of the list. Her last name has been a staple of Toledo politics for the last 15 years. She was the number one vote getter last time around and she just ran. Yet, she's behind Mitch Balonek (who?), Dave Schulz (a first-time Republican candidate), and Mark Sobczak (again, who?). I think the bad press has really taken the shine off her star.

9:55 AM  
Anonymous Jack W said...

Let's see now. Republicans are facing Armageddon all around our state. But in Toledo, it is the Democrats who are getting the back of the hand in early poll results.

Causes me to wonder whether Bob Taft or JACK FORD is the bigger liability this year!

10:14 AM  
Anonymous Angela Winters said...

Despite the Toledo Blade's ranting about Taft, wonder no more Jack W.

Jack Ford IS THE BIGGEST LIABILITY in the Toledo elections this Fall. The Noe's aren't doing any harm to Betty now are they?

I am with Paulette -- The ONLY way to stop Carty is to Stop Jack.

Wilkowski gets my vote.

10:22 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree. The only way to stop Carty is to first stop Jack. Up until this week I was planning to vote for Ford. Now I'm voting for Wilkowski. He's the only chance of stopping Carty.

11:02 AM  
Blogger Subcomandante Bob said...

Important weather alert for Northwest Ohioans
here.


Don't say that you were not warned about Hurricane Cartyrina.

This has been an emergency warning broadcast from the National Weather Service.

11:27 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Stop Hurrincane Cartyrina -- Vote Wilkowski !!!!

11:40 AM  
Blogger billy said...

Here's a question for the masses...

How comes we gotta have twelve councilmembers anyway? Columbus can get 'er done with only seven, and they're a skosh bigger than we are...

1:59 PM  
Anonymous Dave said...

Billy,

You make a great point, one which I have been making throughout the campaign. You are correct, Columbus only has 7 and they are twice as large as we are.

You can read more about my plans at www.davidschulz.com.

Note to Frank: Nice job on the blog and for treating all the challengers with respect.

Dave Schulz (Frank: not Shultz or Shulz :0)

2:48 PM  
Blogger Frank said...

People should be encouraged to run for city council - I respect that. Sorry for the typo.

3:09 PM  
Anonymous Earl from Ohio said...

Poll weirdness:

The poll asked only for the respondent's "top" choice. Which, of course, is different than the election where you get to vote for six.

It'll be interesting to see how these results translate on Election Day.

3:57 PM  
Blogger Frank said...

Fine point Earl.

Prompted me to call Tankersley at The Blade. He confirmed that respondents were read the list of 16 names in rotation and asked for their top pick.

4:10 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MEET CARTY FOR A CUP UPSIDE THE HEAD PARTY

6:18 PM  
Blogger billy said...

hey - tonite at 8pm on Buckeye channel 69 is a mayoral candidate's forum - thought you all would like to tune in!

7:51 PM  
Blogger Frank said...

Thanks.

Had to scrub a few derogatory references to one of the candidates.

Analysis = good.

9:09 PM  
Blogger Frank said...

Thanks for the hookup on 69 billy.

9:15 PM  
Anonymous Chris Brennen said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

10:26 PM  
Anonymous Tontogany Phil said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

10:29 PM  
Blogger Toledoenne said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

10:46 PM  
Anonymous Angela Winters said...

Who the hell is Tontogany Phil?

10:47 PM  
Blogger Frank said...

Again, the thread is on candidates for public office not your favorite/least favorite entertainment show. There are better spots to post on that. Chris, Toledoenne, Tontogany Phil, keep writing here though.

6:33 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Frank said...
Again, the thread is on candidates for public office not your favorite/least favorite entertainment show. There are better spots to post on that. Chris, Toledoenne, Tontogany Phil, keep writing here though.
6:33 AM


So much for that.

4:52 PM  
Blogger Frank said...

I'll scrub this stuff when I get back in front of a computer - too time consuming from my pda here. Please keep to topic of post, not comparing blogs.

5:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did Ford look TERRIBLE tonight at the debate. Did Ludeman have to nudge Ford to wake him up during the debate. Just like the last 4 years, asleep at the wheel!

9:06 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is no way that Jack can win this race after losing that debate. The only way to stop the Carty Party: Vote Wilkowski !

9:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My vote on the four debates:

(1) Carty
(2) Wilkowski
(3) Ludeman
(4) Ford

I think that is how the votes are going to go.

9:08 PM  
Blogger Frank said...

Anonymous bloggers are usually always wrong.

Ford did fine tonight.

9:55 PM  
Anonymous Tontogany Phil said...

I didn't watch the debate.

Too busy trapping groundhogs.

10:06 PM  
Blogger historymike said...

Ford held his own tonight, except for the question about the ToledoWorks billboards. Good job from a guy not noted for his prowess; he looked at ease.

Wilkowski did well, but he did not hit the rhetorical home runs that he needed to gain much ground. He also looked like he was sweating big time.

Carty, well-rested from his vacation, was at the top of his game. The best Carty moment was when he had that Cheshire-cat grin when talking about his goofy "deaf-moving-to-the-airport" faux pas. He turned what would have been a horrid, awkward moment for most pols into magic.

(historymike is bewildered momentarily **shakes his head** No! No! Don't fall for Carty's spell! **smacks himself** Phew! All better now)

Still, Carty has definitely developed as a performer during his Channel 13 stint. He was almost as glib as Jerry Freaking Anderson.

Does that make him a good mayor, though?

Ludeman needed to step up tonight, but was unspectacular. Better luck next debate.

I think Carty won by default, since the other candidates failed to out-charm the King of Charisma.

10:54 PM  
Blogger Dan said...

Frank, nice job managing this post. Looks like more of a challenge than normal.

Well, that poll was interesting, but not easily translated into actual voting behaviors as we CAN choose up to six candidates, not just one. Bullet voting is much different than typical voting. I am also not sure the sample was all that representative given the numbers.

Sure as heck do not understand how Betty Shultz is so high when she could not respect us enough to admit to, much less return that ill gotten booty she got from Captain Noe and his skally wag pirateers. Stolen dollars them Arrrr. Give them back if you care about your integrity.

Basically, everyone else below the #4 spot is in a statistical tie.

Bob Vasquez is working harder than many in that list. Look for him to move out of 10th by 9/13 for certain. A good guy with a strong belief that Toledo can be even better. He’s spending quite a lot of time in face to face contacts with voters. You have to respect that kind of work ethic.

Mitch Balonek is very interesting anomaly that could alter the final standings. Lots of good things to say, not a lot of experience though. Who knows though, new faces come with new ideas...

Tonight, I think Ford held his own nicely. I had to tune out Ludeman's voice since that whine came without any really tangible ideas. Speaking of tangible... Carty comes off well again. Just really hard to get my head around specifics with him. Like biting hard into a buch of cotton candy… seems tasty at first, but not much filling or satisfying in the long run. He's the antithesis of Ford who is very solid on details and in addressing real, tangible issues. Carty still says things like "I want to explore that" when answering a question. What the heck has he been doing since he left office? Didn't have time to “explore that” and come up with real policy? Huh.

Dan Eble

12:05 AM  
Blogger billy said...

Know what I thought was kind of funny last night? Ludeman (who sits on the Maumee River Crossing committee, might be the chair, I cant remember) said something to the effect that the new sports arena should be on the same side of the river as the bridge...

What the hell does that mean!!??

8:33 AM  
Anonymous Tontogany Phil said...

What is a blog anyway?

7:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

T.P -- 'you ever gonna contribute anything pertainant?

9:00 AM  
Anonymous Tontogany Phil said...

Look. I work two jobs and hunt groundhogs at night. I'm kind of maxed out.

I just tune in so you pointy-headed intellectuals can tell me what to think.

I think Bush is a f***** liar. I think Taft is a crook and Ford is a lousy mayor. I think there are no real leaders, politics is corrupt at every level and the public is getting screwed. Just look at what happened in Louisiana. And gasoline is $3.09 a gallon.

Hows that for a contribution to the glob?

5:53 PM  
Blogger Michael Veh said...

This should be an interesting primary. I'll be watching to see how many people actually take the time to come out and vote. I think the real winner (again) will be apathy.

Here's my take on the whole election: I have YET to see anyone come up with real answers to the problems facing Toledo. Sure, we need to diversify economic development, support growing entrepreneurs, and adopt new technology, but nobody seems to be saying how or what they plan to do to take the region that direction. We already know what the problems are now how do we fix them? Everybody keeps getting excited about Jeep expansion and coke plants instead. We’ve been stuck in the same rut for 20 plus years and, no offense Frank, but our elected officials keep taking us back down the same path over and over.

And it’s not just politicians – I personally believe the average Toledoan still thinks we can go back to 1972 and relive the “good ol’ days.” Those days are dead and gone and they’re starting to smell bad so the sooner we bury them, the better. It’s just not possible to get a good paying job with just a high school education any more. Add to the equation the sorry state of our public schools (and charter schools too apparently) and we’re way behind the curve in creating a strong workforce. I love it when people say we make cars in Toledo – we don’t make them here, we just put them together. Making cars would involve the concept and design process – the high-tech aspect of the auto industry – and we’re just not there.

If politicians want to promote entrepreneurs and support growing industries than why aren’t we doing more in alternative energy? Bowling Green has wind farms, advanced solar cell development is going on in Perrysburg, photovoltaic work research is underway at BGSU and fuel cell research is taking place at UT. We need to take this ball and run with it!! This is an area for the future and the growth of this region and we just let it sit in the background and hope something happens. The city, state, county, and township governments should be working together and working very hard to promote the growth of these technologies and I don’t see it happening.

What about the transportation industry? We should be pumping our energy into that industry as well. We sit, geographically, at a cross-road of rail, highway, lake shipping and communications lines. Toledo needs to take advantage of our natural gifts and turn them into a major catalyst for economic development. Instead, we continue chasing smokestacks instead of leveraging our existing assets.

The profiles in the Blade did little to make any one candidate stand apart from the others and nobody said anything that hasn’t been said a dozen times before.

And where can I post the question regarding taxation without representation?

11:37 PM  
Blogger billy said...

Taxation w/o representation? Hell, you need to look no further than those who control the Social security purse strings. No matter the party, NONE of those who control the purse strings on that National ponzi have to pay into it!!!

12:26 PM  
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